An explanation of the Monty Hall problem which convinces me.
Look up The Monty Hall Problem if you've never heard of it. Basically there is a game show hosted by a bloke called Monty Hall, behind one of three closed doors is a prize, like a new luxury car. Behind the other two doors there is nothing. The game is to choose which door to open. You're given no clues. So all doors have an equal chance of giving you the luxury car, roughly 33%. Lets suppose you choose door A. Now Monty opens door C to show you that behind it there is no prize. The question is: Should you change your choice from door A to door B? It is important to remember The A and B pair are not the same as the B and C pair, because the B and C pair do not contain the door your initially chose. The answer is yes , you increase your chances of getting the prize from 33% to 66%. If you haven't heard of the Monty Hall problem before you're probably surprised by this answer, but it is true, not only in theory but also in practice. (Try