Arthur C. Clarke's First Law

Arthur C. Clarke's First law:

"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

I was reminded of this as I started re-reading Goodbye Descartes by Keith Devlin (a mathematician/philosopher). 


To quote from the book: "Toward the end of the 1970s the AI and natural language understanding bubbles began to burst."

Then he mentions a philosopher, Hubert Dreyfus, who wrote a book "What Computers Can't Do," saying that AI programs would never scale up to anything useful.

Just a year ago I heard a philosopher on a BBC podcast declare that "there will never be driverless cars." She did not know what to say when it was pointed out that they already exist.

I started playing around with neural networks after 1997 (when Devlin's book was published). It seems I'd forgotten what Devlin and Dreyfus had taught me about the limits of computers. Anyway, it seemed clear to me that neural networks had enormous potential, and they were going to annoy the hell out of the "computers will never be able to..." crowd.

I think philosophers (including Devlin and Dreyfus) should read more science fiction.

I think philosophers should get out more.

I think programmers and engineers don't like being told what they can and cannot invent.

I think programmers and engineers love a challenge.

(If you have an Arduino you can play with your own tiny neural network by following this link.)


 





 

Comments

  1. omnivoristFriday, 08 January, 2021

    You might like to read Novacene: The Coming Age of Hyperintelligence by James Lovelock (of Gaia fame and now in his 100th year).
    I haven't read the book - just a review but in it he foresees a future in which silicon-base life will take over stewardship of the planet.
    I don't imagine I will read it myself - I feel I know what it will say.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Owen RansenFriday, 08 January, 2021

    "I don't imagine I will read it myself - I feel I know what it will say". Yes many books are like that. You hear the author talking about the book, and you realize that in the interview he has said all that needs to be said about the subject.

    ReplyDelete

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